Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 23.348695 25.433427 27.689741 30.325352 33.335004 36.683112 40.715345
2025-11-30 19.941009 22.755863 26.017732 30.124180 35.224553 41.445994 49.761812
2025-12-07 17.658635 20.877633 24.810864 30.071154 37.084691 46.367514 60.052228
2025-12-14 15.906637 19.332348 23.697461 29.831012 38.515263 50.870154 70.828290
2025-12-21 15.036258 18.749269 23.671204 30.926328 41.835795 58.571154 88.471249
2025-12-28 13.900057 17.663922 22.802814 30.660512 43.050244 63.265630 102.662898
2026-01-04 13.029896 16.838954 22.179072 30.622770 44.542272 68.652878 119.986063
2026-01-11 12.397952 16.277908 21.855925 30.966511 46.662573 75.567166 143.258357
2026-01-18 11.713950 15.577212 21.245791 30.755557 47.760718 80.790513 165.189814
2026-01-25 11.114670 14.950132 20.682546 30.538024 48.784381 86.085412 190.144957
2026-02-01 10.621036 14.441832 20.253638 30.485429 50.088482 92.295667 221.579824
2026-02-08 10.147248 13.929207 19.771767 30.277680 51.041694 97.963710 255.492137
2026-02-15 9.692552 13.426650 19.282059 30.030573 51.939189 103.945005 296.565762
2026-02-22 9.273715 12.955597 18.810276 29.769100 52.777836 110.110658 345.334517
2026-03-01 8.923703 12.572362 18.456043 29.689214 54.005172 117.789541 411.338819
2026-03-08 8.574268 12.169370 18.038286 29.441300 54.812121 124.596770 484.115423
2026-03-15 8.466617 12.151040 18.278975 30.510418 58.921148 143.309209 673.643891
2026-03-22 8.159558 11.785918 17.882998 30.247231 59.716367 151.513993 811.576800
2026-03-29 7.908380 11.500580 17.609689 30.209130 61.086826 162.486413 1019.622691
2026-04-05 7.727419 11.323468 17.518929 30.545746 63.522237 178.897432 1387.733750
2026-04-12 7.484535 11.028544 17.192418 30.338661 64.434009 189.693976 1767.286985
2026-04-19 7.256529 10.748594 16.876723 30.125233 65.299010 200.923647 2291.009781
2026-04-26 7.063083 10.519672 16.643072 30.073610 66.640084 215.383471 3162.737122